10 May 2006: from Greer Watson to Jacqueline Lichtenberg
Dear Jacqueline,
Okay, now bear in mind that this is a very very much guesstimated figure.
I've started with a total North American population of 30 million.
And then assumed that one quarter of them live in Sime Territory (i.e. 7.5
million). The rest live in Gen Territory, and are nearly all either Gen
adults, or their children. There are a small number of feral juncts living
in Ancient ruins, and such like places; but, since they are hunted out
periodically by the army, their numbers never get a chance to grow.
My figures, as calculated so far in the material that you've already read,
show that at the Doom point (which, of course, we never reach), there
would be a ratio of 330 preGens to 54 Gens to 1 Sime. That is, for every
adult Sime, there would be 54 adult Gens, and 330 children of Gens living on
the Genfarms. Also there would be some people in the Householdings; but
I've had to leave them out of the calculations, since I don't know what
proportion they represent of the population as a whole.
This leaves out two groups: first, there are people who live in neither
territory, i.e. the Freeband Raiders. I figure they probably comprise about
10% of the total Sime population on the continent, have no kids, and live at
most two years.
I'm leaving them out.
Then there are the preSimes, i.e. the children of the Simes. (Some of them
actually turn out to be Gens, just as some of the Gens' children turn out
Sime; but that doesn't affect the numbers.) The other 90% of Simes live
maybe ten years, except that by Zelerod's Doom this figure is rising. A
lot.
Since the only birth control is being junct, I'm assuming that each Sime
woman has maybe three kids on average—but, since she is young and (if she
is born of Sime parents) unused to the concept of nursing the sick, the
death rate is higher than it is among Genborn kids. So maybe 40% of the
babies die in the first year, of sheer ignorance, if not of actual neglect.
The mortality rate thereafter is also higher, so that, in the end, fewer
than half the kids grow up.
At which point a third of them promptly turn in to Prime Kills.
Which means that Sime reproduction is far below replacement levels.
Which means that about half the Simes are actually changeover survivors
with Gen parents.
Who, given the buffer zones around Gen Territory, probably are almost
all escapees from the Genfarms.
However, it doesn't matter for this purpose because I'm leaving out the
kids, too.
So the calculations are:
330x + 54x + 1x = 7,500,000
(330 + 54 + 1) x = 7,500,000
385x = 7,500,000
x = 19,481

In other words, there is no way that the Sime population of North America
can ever reach as high as 20,000. In fact, it isn't anything like as high
as that—not so much because I left out the Simes' children, because, as
there are so few Simes, they produce only a small number of children. No,
the reason there are fewer Simes than that is because this is the Doom
figure. And we are still a long way off Doom.
I would say that there couldn't possibly be more than maybe 15,000 Simes
living in North America. That's at the time of Zelerod's Doom, which is
the highest figure you ever get preUnity.
Greer
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