9 May 2006:   from Greer Watson to Jacqueline Lichtenberg

Dear Jacqueline,

I'd like to take the figures that I've calculated a little further; but to do this I need a bit of “guesstimation” from you.

1. At the time of Zelerod's Doom, approximately what percentage of the population of North America lived in one of the Sime Territories, and what percentage in one of the Gen Territories?   Rough figures.
        Are we talking half and half?   One third in Sime Territory, two-thirds in Gen Territory?   Vice versa?

2. How large were Sime families at the time of Zelerod's Doom?   I get the impression that they are significantly smaller than families in Gen Territory.   Would 2 or 3 children be the norm?   Or would it be less?   Should I assume an age distribution something like today?   (Families in Gen Territory seem likely to follow more of a mid nineteenth century pattern, judging by the cultural development.)

I'm thinking of taking the 1880 figure for the U.S. as the total population for the continent: that would be 50 million.   But I'd like to work out the Sime:Gen distribution, and thereby get the numbers of Simes.   Ratios are all very well; but most people respond better to actual total numbers.
        I'm picking the 1880 figure because by that time the centre of the continent had been settled, not just the East, the West Coast, and the old Spanish territories in the South West.
        If you want a lower figure, say so.   I've no problem with it being lower; but I doubt if it would be higher.


P.S. There is a figure given in Zelerod's Doom; but it's obviously a guess on the part of you and Jean.   And it doesn't work (which proves the risk of guessing).
        Ediva tells Risa at one point that there are 1.5 million Simes in Nivet; but that works out at a population of 81 million Gens and 495 million kids living on the Genfarms.   Which would be more than the population in the whole of the U.S now.   Which just can't be.
        She explicitly says “Simes”, too; so she can't just be rolling the Simes and Gens together.   (Oops.)


Jacqueline's response
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